中國錢荒? China’s money shortage?

China_cash前提: 加拿大房地產是由內外買家共同支撐。對於房產的活動,我絕的有必要跟大家分享一下來自中國的經濟情況。

年關將近,本應放下手上的工作,好好的和親友團圓的日子,但是,對於中國許多企業,甚至中小銀行還有影子銀行來說,今年的現金真是難賺。根據個人觀察,早在三月份,中國就已經出現錢荒。直至六月份,這現象擴大至全中國。到了十二月份又再出現一次高潮。所謂的錢荒,就是,你想跟銀行借錢,銀行沒有錢借給你。或者,你的投資到期。理當獲利本金一起繳回,但是銀行沒錢。更甚,你想要提錢買年貨,銀行卻沒有錢。如果中國大規模的錢荒,沒有及時制止,可以說中國的金融體系就垮嘞。還好,中國有中央人民銀行出手相救。但是中央人行的三天3000億人民幣的急救,似乎還未能平息中國錢荒的問題。對此,我對這問題做了些研究。本人不是財經系畢業,如有錯誤,懇請指證。

根據華爾街日報和大紀元報導,錢荒原因:

1. 年關將至,中國企業必須要填補自己公司的帳冊。雖沒有講得很清楚,但是跟公司獲利能力和股東大會有關? 這可能牽扯的是影子銀行,也就是個人錢莊,借錢恐怕不需明帳登記。畢竟,借錢來展現獲利,應該是很難看的。

2. 中國中小銀行和影子銀行共同推銷的金融商品已經開始陸續到期,該是要還錢和獲利給投資人的時候。但是,錢沒進來(可能投資項目虧錢),亦或本身已經超貸,銀行根本沒有錢兌換當初賣出的金融商品,導致必須要像更大的銀行借錢(隔夜拆款)。

3. 呆帳和假經營,真挪用。許多國營企業產能在中國已經是超產。對於國營企業的壓力和優勢,中小企業有些多是已經在借貸度日。中小和影子銀行的審批和寬鬆借貸,讓這些企業能苟延殘喘下去。但是,企業負責人早已看出這點,拼命借錢。然後把錢挪入自己口袋。畢竟,中國有這樣一個說法。你跟銀行借錢,借一千萬,銀行是你老子,借到一億,銀行變你孫子。

4. 過多資金外流。許多個人借款多因個人人生規劃原因,導致大量現金流向外國,如,加拿大。許多呆帳狀況出現。

這些現象導是導致現今中國現金短缺問題的冰山一角。長期以往,小銀行和影子銀行就變成大銀行的付擔,也成為中國金融界裡最不定時的炸彈。有鑑於此,中央銀行出手相救,希望能緩和目前這緊張局面。這是否就能解決中國金融的問題? 可能很不好說。但是對於溫哥華房市來說,個人結論是,中國錢荒對加拿大房產,短期之內,沒有決定性影響。

A cash squeeze is rippling through the Chinese financial system despite three days of liquidity injections by the country’s central bank, as borrowers scramble to secure funds before the end of the year.

The situation worsened Friday as the interest rate banks charge each other for short-term loans jumped to 8.2%, the highest level since a crippling liquidity shortage in the summer. The stress in the banking system is starting to spread: Stocks in Shanghai fell for a ninth consecutive day to the weakest level in four months, while government bonds dropped, pushing the 10-yield near to its highest level in eight years.

The People’s Bank of China issued its second statement about the developments in two days, saying it had injected a total of 300 billion yuan ($49.4 billion) into the financial system over the previous three days.

The statement, released on the central bank’s official account on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like microblogging service, said the cash injection was aimed at coping with changes in the money market at year-end. It didn’t elaborate.

The turmoil has been sparked by a scramble for funds by banks and other borrowers in the world’s second-largest economy as they near the end of the year, when they typically need extra cash to meet regulatory requirements and funding demands from companies.

This year many of China’s banks are already under stress. Investors have pushed their stock prices below book value because of concerns about rising defaults on loans and the slowest domestic economic growth in 20 years.

The interbank-lending market in China has grown dramatically in recent years, in part because of demand from the country’s surging shadow-banking sector. Lending by shadow banks has increased as China has tried to limit borrowing from traditional banks in an attempt to control the country’s rising debt levels.

The central bank said Friday that banks should adjust the structure of their assets and liabilities, a possible reference to the growing dependence of some banks on short-term interbank loans to fund their assets.

The central bank said on Thursday that it is using a special type of short-term liquidity operation to inject cash into the system.

Another factor driving the stress in the interbank-lending market is that many loans made by the central bank aimed at easing the cash squeeze will mature at the end of the year, forcing borrowers to come up with the cash to pay them off.

“The fragile nature of the financial system remains a challenge for the central bank and poses a threat to the economy,” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura. He says the central bank’s action will “likely help to prevent a recurrence of the June liquidity squeeze in the short term.”

The year-end cash squeeze differs from the turmoil of the summer because the central bank has continued to add cash to the system, rather than cut it off as it did then, when short-term rates topped 28%. By keeping money tight and pushing rates up, the bank is trying to curb lending, but also limit the growth of China’s shadow-banking system and force banks to learn to manage under a system of market-driven interest rates.

The big worry is that the cash shortage could lead to a bank defaulting on its loans, which could spark chaos in the markets and spur bankers to hoard cash. Those fears were brought real this week when China Everbright Bank Co. 601818.SH -3.96% , the country’s 11th biggest lender, admitted it had defaulted on 6.5 billion yuan ($1.07 billion) worth of interbank loans on June 5, the eve of the summer liquidity squeeze, although it made good on the loans the following day.

Coincidentally, China Everbright’s shares began trading in Hong Kong on Friday in a $3 billion initial public offering. Weak investor demand forced the bank to price its offering below its 2013 book value and the shares fell 2.8%, an unusually large decline for a big IPO, which typically draw support from the deal’s underwriters. The Hong Kong market fell slightly Friday, while stocks in Shanghai fell 2% to their weakest level since September.

Few are predicting a repeat of the summer chaos. The seven-day repurchase agreement rate, a measure of short-term funding costs, is still well below the rates of 28% reached during the height of the summer turmoil. Since then it has averaged around 4.2%, compared to around 3% earlier in 2013 and 2% to 3% in recent years.

The higher rates appear to be a deliberate effort by the central bank to tighten monetary policy this year to actively rein in the riskiest types of lending among banks. Smaller banks are especially vulnerable to the higher borrowing costs as they’re most reliant on the interbank market for cash, as they have smaller deposit bases than larger state-owned banks that are deemed safer.

That means the central bank isn’t just able to pour money into the market as it will encourage financial institutions to continue with their bad lending practices, said Haitong Securities 600837.SH -3.71% analyst Jiang Chao.

Many banks invested too much in illiquid assets such as local government debt for high yields, and are now struggling to borrow money to meet short-term cash needs, Mr. Jiang said. To fix the mismatch between the assets and debts of banks, all the central bank can do is maintain its tightening bias while sending signals occasionally to appease the market, he says.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304773104579269211799066166 (720)

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