東部房市領先復甦 Major cities in eastern Canada are leading the real estate recovery

5263645最新加拿大廣播頻道指出,根據REMAX房產集團預估,東部兩大房產市場Burlington 和Hamilton,將會帶領加拿大”特有的”房地產市場走向復甦。(這事實上已經在溫哥華的房產市場可以看見復甦的情況了。) REMAX預測,到2014年底,Hamilton-Burlington大約可以看到7.5%的漲幅。Barrie大約是7%,Calgary,St. Johns大約6%,溫哥華則大約會是5%。

REMAX這項預估還指出,加拿大所有主要房產城市有25個,其中23個可以預見價格上揚,主要是因為加拿大整體經濟的改善,尤其是2013下半年的經濟表現。全國來說,2014整體房產交易量大約會上漲2%,由453,000戶增加至475,000戶。至於價格方面,整體表現會有3%的增幅,到達每戶平均價$390k。(我本身覺得這個價格完全小看了加拿大整體市場。在溫哥華,一個免強可以住人的獨立屋房屋都不只$390k嘞。) REMAX説,其樂觀的預估主要是預見加拿大的2014經濟成長會僅次於美國的2.8%,跟其它七大工業國相比,會一枝獨秀。

除此以外,根據一些獨立房產公司的觀察,民眾對於未來利息升息的不確定性還有因為2013年Q1和Q2的市場步調緩慢,導致市場的房源量不夠,所以這些都有可能成為房地產翻盤的動能。除此以外,像是溫哥華這類城市,依山傍海,限制其發展,導致開發密度增高,移民湧入,也是成為房產價格攀升的主因。

Hamilton and Burlington are leading Canada’s “exceptionally healthy” housing market in 2014, according to a leading real estate group.

Re/Max said Wednesday Hamilton-Burlington can expect an average price increase in real estate of 7.5 per cent by the year’s end. That’s followed by Barrie, Ont. at seven per cent, Calgary and St. John’s, NL, at six per cent, and Greater Vancouver, Winnipeg and the Greater Toronto Area at five per cent.

Re/Max said 23 of 25 major markets surveyed, or 92 per cent, will see increases, thanks to improvements in the overall economy that helped produce a surge in the latter half of this year.

Nationally, home sales are expected to climb two per cent to 475,000 units next year after a three per cent increase to well over 453,000 projected for 2013 when all the numbers are in.

At the same time, the value of an average Canadian home is forecast to escalate three per cent to $390,000 in 2014 after rising four per cent to $380,000 in 2013, according to a survey of the group’s independent brokers and affiliates.

Meanwhile, the outlook is for the residential housing market to remain in “clear balanced territory” throughout 2014, although some pockets and price points may see continued shortages.

Re/Max said its optimism is largely based on an improved outlook for Canada next year which is expected to see the country enjoy economic growth second only to the 2.8 per cent rate of the United States among Group of Seven countries.

And while Canada’s economic growth is currently forecast at 2.3 per cent, prices could move higher given the impact of strengthening global economies on the Canadian manufacturing sector.

Solid ground for sales

“Canadian housing markets are on solid ground after a somewhat harrowing first and second quarter of 2013,” said Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice-president and regional director, Re/max Ontario-Atlantic Canada.

Better than expected economic performance, relatively stable inventory levels and the threat of higher interest rates down the road “proved mid-year game changers, providing the stimulus necessary to jump-start home buying activity,” Sandhu said.

As a result, the momentum that emerged in the latter half of the year is expected to spill over into 2014, setting the stage for continued growth and expansion in most residential markets, Re/Max said.

The forecast for 2014 shows the upward trend continuing, with values expected to again climb in 92 per cent of markets surveyed, led by Greater Toronto at six per cent.

Quebec and Atlantic Canada have been the exceptions to the rosy performance in 2013, with sales expected to fall below 2012 levels.

But even there things should improve next year, Re/Max said.

“Both regions should rebound in the new year, led by Halifax-Dartmouth (five per cent), Moncton (three per cent), Greater Montreal (two per cent) and Quebec City (two per cent).”

Increasing density

Although there are several factors that are expected to contribute to rising housing prices on a national basis, one of the most pressing is build out, Re/Max said.

“Nowhere is that more obvious than in Vancouver, where the mountains and the ocean have prevented further growth, and the Greater Toronto Area, where the greenbelt has stymied future development.”

“As such, the availability of low-rise homes relative to the population is expected to contract, placing further pressure on prices,” it said.

“We’re definitely seeing a greater commitment to higher density at a municipal level,” said Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president, RE/MAX of Western Canada.

“In fact, the trend already underway in Vancouver and Toronto, has gained serious momentum in smaller markets where cities are moving to infuse vibrancy into the urban core through mixed-use residential/commercial/retail development.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/hamilton-leading-national-real-estate-price-increase-1.2459580 (442)

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