利率持續不變/Overnight rate unchanged

Bank_of_Canada_2

加拿大央行利率公告

加拿大央行再一次公布隔夜利率維持在1%。這份報告中指出,通膨率仍然控制在加拿大央行所期待的2%以下,現金供應則是超出央行期待。目前通膨率應會保持不變。除此以外,央行對於加拿大房市的看法是軟著陸,也就是不會泡沫,但是會有修正期出現,為此,銀行的金融政策會持續配合。

過剩的現金供應,加拿大央行認為,此一現象會在2015中期減緩。屆時,加拿大的利率可能會上調。但是,加拿大央行的相同預估早在幾年前便有耳聞,卻尚未實現。整體來說,加拿大央行認為美國經濟會在2015復甦,加拿的經濟也可隨之起飛。

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement

The Bank of Canada once again opted to maintain its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In its accompanying statement, the Bank highlighted that inflation continues to move below the Bank’s 2 per cent target due to significant excess supply in the Canadian economy. It also noted that the risks to inflation appear to be to the downside, meaning it sees the risk of continued below target inflation as a more likely outcome than a rise in inflation. This, along with the Bank’s expectation of a “soft landing” in the Canadian housing market, suggest that monetary policy will remain highly accommodative.

The Bank of Canada is currently projecting that excess supply in the Canadian economy will be eliminated sometime in mid-2015. Keeping in mind that the Bank has spent the past several years pushing that date back, if the Canadian economy does accelerate as most expect in 2014, a gradual rise in short-term interest rates will follow. Importantly, an uptick in Canadian economic growth next year will most likely be the result of stronger external demand, particularly from a resurgent United States. However, stronger growth in the US economy will also put upward pressure on long-term yields, lessening some of the urgency for monetary tightening. For that reason, we expect that eventual Bank of Canada tightening will occur very slowly, beginning with a 25 to 50 basis point increase in the overnight rate in 2015. (1865)

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